As Egypt’s transitional power is handed to its military during reform period, Cairo settles. However, the other revolutions inspired by Tunisia have escalated by the example of Egypt. Bahrain specifically. 

In the future, we will see successful revolutions and failed revolutions (much like the chain of events following the American Revolution and Europe’s fate). The revolutions have been escalating in Iran, Chad, Jordan, and Bahrain. In Iran, protests have been silenced with force. Bahrain is having the same reaction, but the force is failing. I believe Bahrain will be the next successful overthrow.

The Obama Administration has been commenting on the protests and revolutions in hopes to gain new allies in the Middle-East. But could these comments supporting the people in their revolts hurt the United States? I believe so, and that those close to the United States will be critical of its action and hypocrisy. Liberal foreign policy is all about not policing the world, but is the Obama Administration doing just that in admonishing the governments to not resist the movements? They are. The comments were necessary for Egypt, and possibly are for other revolutions. But these comments can be damaging as well, as it shows an over-extension of United States power.

We must, for the most part, let the events unfold so that in our intentions for good, we don’t cause an imbalance and radical reaction among our enemies in the Middle-East.

Hosni Mubarak today stepped down after angry riots happened outside of his home as a result of his announcement that he will not resign. Mubarak handed all power to Egypt’s military, which is the one institution that has shown great restraint.

Celebrations were common all throughout today. The new military administration will meet with all anti-government groups to establish a successful and open democracy. However, depending on the outcome, this could prove negative for the United States and Israel. Obama extends his arm to Egypt in hopes of an alliance with the new-coming Administration.

However, this is where most failures in revolutions happen. The revolution isn’t over; it’s near beginning. And the transition has just begun. The world’s political super-powers must keep their eyes peeled cautiously, and Egypt must stay strong with a transition. Otherwise, the consequences could be dire.

• Caption: An anti-government protester celebrates - Yahoo! News

Protesters became increasingly happy today and began celebrating. The peace has been almost fully restored; Mubarak supporters tried to come with rocks again but they were fought off. Anti-government protesters feel strong, un-intimidated, and satisfied if all goes well with the Obama Administration’s plan for reform in Egypt.

A possible plan before was to cede power to the vice president, but protesters were very displeased with that idea. A new updated plan is to have Mubarak resign almost immediately and give government power to the military as purely transitional while a new government and system is formed.

This seems ideal to protesters, as it removes Mubarak’s corruption, oppression, and paid thugs entirely. It also gives the power to the institution who has shown the most restraint dealing with the crisis; its actions have prevented an outbreak of civil war and, as of recently, stopped violence and protected citizens (if you remember from before, they were idle when violence was at its peak because they were given no orders to stop it). People need to know that that wasn’t the military’s job, it was the police’s, and they, allegedly, became paid thugs for Mubarak. Again, that’s still unconfirmed.

• Caption: Egyptian Army soldiers secure roads - Yahoo! News

The military’s neutrality proves it to be the commonsensical institution to put transitional power in the hands of. The Egyptians generally agree and the day today has been that of celebration.

The day is known as The Day of Leaving.

Friday, February 4th, 2011, anti-government protesters turned out peacefully in Cairo again at an estimated quarter of a million people. They demand that today be the day Hosni Mubarak resigns. The Obama Administration says they are in talks with Mubarak about such things happening; they don’t trust his humanitarian record either. One suggested plan is to resign and leave power for reform with his vice president. The people are not happy with that option, and more will be done in talks to negotiate.

For now, however, most of the protests are peaceful again and they are larger than ever before, not phased by the one and a half days of pure violence and destruction.

Caption: An Egyptian anti-government protester stopping for Friday prayer in front of tanks lining core protest areas.

As opposed to the chaos now? President Hosni Mubarak refuses to resign early because he is worried about the state of his country. That being said, the anti-government protesters do not trust him to leave office when the end of his term comes. They say he will simply say, “Well look at the turmoil! You all need me! I’m staying.” The protesters also say that he payed thugs to start the violence of yesterday and the night before to show that statement. That notion is still unconfirmed.

Fortunately, ever since the military intervened yesterday, the protests have been mostly peaceful (notice the word mostly). The military has lined core areas with tanks and anti-government protesters have built barricades all over to ensure safety.

The biggest thing to worry about still is the worry I expressed early on in the protests: radical groups coming out of the grassroots. Even neutrality with the U.S. could mean a near-end to Israel and its people. Riots have continued and will continue consistently until they feel it’s all a success.

Anti-government protesters vowed to peaceful protests. After Mubarak’s speech last night, that ended momentarily. The Military was able to control it rather quickly. I predicted a possible temporary breech of the peace. It may be permanent.

Today, pro-government protesters rode in on horses and camels, whipping and beating anti-government protesters. Each side was picking up projectiles and launching them at each other.

The military tried to fire in the air over and over to control them but the fighting continued. Protests have escalated into street battles. Both sides are angry and violent and are still fighting.

Mubarak, hoping to show that the crisis was over, reinstated all internet service. This, however, had no effect. The people want change now and the Obama Administration agrees.

Supporters of Mubarak say that he is resigning and has given into the protests. He promises peace and reform and there is no need for the demonstrations at this point. Especially with the internet back up and running.

Anti-government protesters, however, say it was not enough and that the demonstrations will continue. They also feel the military are “paid thugs” and let the violent supporters of Mubarak in. But the military was allowing peaceful protest and agreeing with the people before. Why would they let those with whips on horse-back and camel-back in to beat protesters with it? I think it just deals with each soldier’s personal views.

Violence ensues in Cairo and all around Egypt. This is the exact path it takes to lead to an Iranian outcome, or a Russian outcome, etc. It’s heading down a bad road.

I have long been saying that the revolution in Egypt could and, in probability, would end with an Islamic-militancy regime against Israel and the U.S. So, as I stated in one of my previous articles, the Obama Administration is trying to gain an ally out of the people or at least neutrality. We may lose a great ally but gaining an enemy launching pad for Al Qaeda would be a nightmare. He now backs the people as the now-facts show that they will overcome.

That being said, after the revolts bring success, it comes time for reconstruction. This is where, another thing I said in previous articles, an outcome like Cuba, Russia, France, or Iran could come. Progressive liberals have been for the people, and in time of reconstruction, have taken over with power and support. In 1979, we saw it with Iran, and the outcome was disastrous.

The worst thing to do at this point is get the people more and more angry. The Egyptian military has told the protesters they can return to normal life, but seeing that this was not enough for them, their anger builds. All it takes is one person out of the grassroots to “save them”.  The Islamic Brotherhood has vowed to non-violence and are not looking for a military approach. The Christian Science Monitor cites Mr. Rubin, an author of books in the Middle-East, saying that they simply have not used violence because it was not the right time.

Very unlikely. But I agree with him saying that it could boots the Arab-Israeli conflict and cost “tens of thousands of lives”. The Islamic Brotherhood has been peaceful for decades. It’s unlikely, but possible that they would become violent at the right time. Though, it’s very likely that another group would come out and become violent on behalf of the people. Most of the country is filled with fundamentalists, so it’s not an empty thought.

The Obama Administration, as well as the world, knows that Mubarak’s regime is the only thing there to stop Islamic-militancy. At the end of the term, chaos would ensue. The U.S. urges him to leave office quickly so that there can be an orderly government reform with aid from other countries. But the fact is, the people want a democratic reform: one that stands up for what they want. The U.S. needs the new Egyptian administration to be a friend of Israel and a combatant of terrorism, when the people are in favor of those exact things. Anything promoting Israel’s or the U.S.’s mission would be just as disliked. The best case scenario is they become neutral or inactive against Israel and not a home for Al Qaeda.

Reform should be done quickly and within months. Otherwise it could be another Cuba, Russia, France, or Iran. When you add Israel into the mix with that outcome, the scenario is very grim.

Hosni Mubarak, after being on the phone with President Obama for some time, gave a televised speech at about 10 minutes in length. He stated he would not run for yet another term. This was good news for the Million Protester March in Cairo today.

However, he stated he was going to serve the rest of his term to meet many of the demands for democratic reform. This made the people angry and upset. They were again unmoved by his announcement. While the Obama Administration urges him to swiftly leave office orderly to set up a new government, Hosni Mubarak believes he should finish his time in office.

He also stated he will not flee Egypt as Zine El Abidine Ben Ali did with Tunisia. “I will die on Egyptian soil.” The anti-government protesters became more aggravated. This was especially so as Mubarak supporters took to the streets. The two groups were throwing rocks at each other. The peaceful protests of the anti-government democratic reformers had ended until the military shot rounds in the air to break the groups up.

The Islamic Brotherhood has vowed they are not looking for leadership positions and are vowing to the vow of peace they took decades ago. But what about other radical groups possibly emerging from the grassroots? In a national survey, over 50% of Egyptians consider themselves fundamentalists. This is not counting the fundamentalists who don’t believe they are fundamentalists.

The protests will surely continue, considering the masses demand Hosni Mubarak leave office prior to his term ending. The United States is trying to usher in the same ally they would have had against Islamic-militancy and terrorism and the same ally for Israel while also ushering in the democratic reform. Though, with most Egyptians considering themselves on the side of Palestine, that is unlikely, and any form of government supporting the United States would be very disliked.

This is why the United States, partly, wishes to usher Hosni Mubarak out quickly: to appeal to the people and to orderly set up a new government structure. Peaceful protests possibly have temporarily ceased, but any violence would consequentially bring military involvement. The Egyptians have forced Hosni Mubarak to end his terms and go back to their constitutional laws, but they are pushing for more reform and quicker action.

The U.N. is expressing fears of the Egyptian Revolution. Hosni Mubarak has been an ally of the United States and has been a very powerful force against international terrorism. His administration, over the past 30 years, has also been a key defender of Israel. That being said, he is without-a-doubt autocratic. If the people succeed in overthrowing his government or in forcing him to resign, there could be a huge threat to other moderate countries.

In a national survey of Egypt, over 50% of the population considered themselves to be fundamentalist and not fond of the U.S. government and people. With the Islamic Brotherhood, a radical Muslim group, backing the people and their protests, a possible new form of government could emerge with the military. The military may not be stopping protests, gatherings, or curfew-breakers, but they are not object to using force to stop an overthrow in opposition to their wants.

The Islamic Brotherhood has been repressed by Hosni Mubarak despite their power and will. These events in the Middle-East and Northern Africa is an opportunity for them to emerge. Their power has potential to lead them to claiming the reins of the revolution. Examples from history prove it to be possible: Lenin and Stalin with Russia, Castro with Cuba, Napoleon with France, etc. The arguments against that are the examples of most of Europe and the U.S.

Both outcomes are possible, but the worst is being expected by some. The citizens of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and other countries have been oppressed and kept in poverty by those in power; them settling for anything better or a majority opinion which could be radical is legitimate (according to the national survey).

With our very powerful ally on the teetering point, the U.S. watches carefully, torn between the democratic ideals of the people or the power of the government. It offers no ability for an accurate assessment as to which direction either side could lean towards.