Those Boring Politics

I have long been saying that the revolution in Egypt could and, in probability, would end with an Islamic-militancy regime against Israel and the U.S. So, as I stated in one of my previous articles, the Obama Administration is trying to gain an ally out of the people or at least neutrality. We may lose a great ally but gaining an enemy launching pad for Al Qaeda would be a nightmare. He now backs the people as the now-facts show that they will overcome.

That being said, after the revolts bring success, it comes time for reconstruction. This is where, another thing I said in previous articles, an outcome like Cuba, Russia, France, or Iran could come. Progressive liberals have been for the people, and in time of reconstruction, have taken over with power and support. In 1979, we saw it with Iran, and the outcome was disastrous.

The worst thing to do at this point is get the people more and more angry. The Egyptian military has told the protesters they can return to normal life, but seeing that this was not enough for them, their anger builds. All it takes is one person out of the grassroots to “save them”.  The Islamic Brotherhood has vowed to non-violence and are not looking for a military approach. The Christian Science Monitor cites Mr. Rubin, an author of books in the Middle-East, saying that they simply have not used violence because it was not the right time.

Very unlikely. But I agree with him saying that it could boots the Arab-Israeli conflict and cost “tens of thousands of lives”. The Islamic Brotherhood has been peaceful for decades. It’s unlikely, but possible that they would become violent at the right time. Though, it’s very likely that another group would come out and become violent on behalf of the people. Most of the country is filled with fundamentalists, so it’s not an empty thought.

The Obama Administration, as well as the world, knows that Mubarak’s regime is the only thing there to stop Islamic-militancy. At the end of the term, chaos would ensue. The U.S. urges him to leave office quickly so that there can be an orderly government reform with aid from other countries. But the fact is, the people want a democratic reform: one that stands up for what they want. The U.S. needs the new Egyptian administration to be a friend of Israel and a combatant of terrorism, when the people are in favor of those exact things. Anything promoting Israel’s or the U.S.’s mission would be just as disliked. The best case scenario is they become neutral or inactive against Israel and not a home for Al Qaeda.

Reform should be done quickly and within months. Otherwise it could be another Cuba, Russia, France, or Iran. When you add Israel into the mix with that outcome, the scenario is very grim.

Hosni Mubarak, after being on the phone with President Obama for some time, gave a televised speech at about 10 minutes in length. He stated he would not run for yet another term. This was good news for the Million Protester March in Cairo today.

However, he stated he was going to serve the rest of his term to meet many of the demands for democratic reform. This made the people angry and upset. They were again unmoved by his announcement. While the Obama Administration urges him to swiftly leave office orderly to set up a new government, Hosni Mubarak believes he should finish his time in office.

He also stated he will not flee Egypt as Zine El Abidine Ben Ali did with Tunisia. “I will die on Egyptian soil.” The anti-government protesters became more aggravated. This was especially so as Mubarak supporters took to the streets. The two groups were throwing rocks at each other. The peaceful protests of the anti-government democratic reformers had ended until the military shot rounds in the air to break the groups up.

The Islamic Brotherhood has vowed they are not looking for leadership positions and are vowing to the vow of peace they took decades ago. But what about other radical groups possibly emerging from the grassroots? In a national survey, over 50% of Egyptians consider themselves fundamentalists. This is not counting the fundamentalists who don’t believe they are fundamentalists.

The protests will surely continue, considering the masses demand Hosni Mubarak leave office prior to his term ending. The United States is trying to usher in the same ally they would have had against Islamic-militancy and terrorism and the same ally for Israel while also ushering in the democratic reform. Though, with most Egyptians considering themselves on the side of Palestine, that is unlikely, and any form of government supporting the United States would be very disliked.

This is why the United States, partly, wishes to usher Hosni Mubarak out quickly: to appeal to the people and to orderly set up a new government structure. Peaceful protests possibly have temporarily ceased, but any violence would consequentially bring military involvement. The Egyptians have forced Hosni Mubarak to end his terms and go back to their constitutional laws, but they are pushing for more reform and quicker action.

Egypt is in a state of revolution according to some politicians and news sources. A possible source for this distress? The Jasmine Revolution of Tunisia (sparked by the Individual Rights protesters of Anonymous). The Tunisian uprise has started violent protests all of Northern Africa and in parts of the Middle-East (such as Yemen). The United States is put in a horrible position of awkwardness, as the government is an ally of the U.S. and the people are revolting for American principles. Egypt has been a huge helper of the fight against terrorism and has also aided the United States in defending Israel; this means the downfall of the government and President Mohamed Hosni Sayyid Mubarak would hurt the U.S. and threaten its national security. This, however, makes the people angry for not supporting them because the Obama administration is avoiding side-picking. The uprise continues as the tension overflows into violence and flames. Anonymous has started a chain reaction in the Middle East to abolish oppression of universal human rights. The people choose to have these rights, and now they are pushing for them.